📌 为什么算期望值?
90%的交易者不知道自己每笔交易平均能赚多少。
期望值 =(胜率 × 平均盈利)-(败率 × 平均亏损)
它告诉你:长期来看,你每做一笔交易,口袋里是进钱还是出钱。
✅ 期望值为正 → 你有一套能赚钱的系统
⛔ 期望值为负 → 你在用亏损的方法交易,停手就是赚钱
📊 什么是 Bootstrap 统计检验?
把你的交易记录重复模拟 10,000 次。
如果 95% 以上 的模拟结果都是正的 → 你的策略真的能赚钱,不是运气。
如果低于 95% → 数据还不够,继续交易,积累更多记录再来检验。
📌 Why does expectancy matter?
90% of traders don't know their average P&L per trade.
Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win) - (Loss Rate × Avg Loss)
It tells you: over the long run, does each trade put money in or take money out?
✅ Positive expectancy → you have a system that works
⛔ Negative expectancy → you're trading a losing method. Not trading is making money.
📊 What is Bootstrap?
In plain words: simulate your trading record 10,000 times.
If over 95% of simulations are positive → your strategy works, it's not luck.
If below 95% → not enough data yet. Keep trading and check back later.